This year will be characterized by the emergence of AI agents in enterprises. Over the next decade, we believe that firms will be transformed in ways that would have been unthinkable only a few years ago.
Since World War II, we have viewed organizations as socio-technical systems, consisting of goal-seeking humans with free will, and machines behaving deterministically. Soon, we will add a new kind of entity — AI agents — which are non-deterministic and goal-seeking. Organizations are becoming agento-socio-technical systems. This will profoundly affect organizational strategy, design, operations, leadership, and culture.
As we work to build the organizations of the future, it important to keep an eye on the world around us. In April 2022, we held our first in-person event in Silicon Valley after the Covid lockdowns. Our subject was “Innovation in a Fracturing World.” The ideal of a flat world with free trade was clearly fading. Russia’s assault on Ukraine showed us that the old world of competing nation states was coming back full force. This has significant impact on the evolution of the AI industry.
The world is even more divided today. The United States has abandoned the idea of free trade, and the global security situation remains worrisome. Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran have been greatly weakened in the Middle East, and Assad was finally ousted in Syria, but the fundamental conflicts have not been resolved. There is little doubt that future war with be fought with autonomous weapon systems, and these systems will rapidly become cheaper and more capable.
Here in the United States, we have also seen a rise in nationalism, a new tribal affiliation competing with identity politics. It is ironic that, in a country based on individualism, the cultural clash of the day still revolves around affiliation with one tribe versus another.
Whether it’s corporate strategy or the course of nations, we should think more about what ideas and ideals we are for and why, rather than what tribe we are against. Technology will not do this for us. But with the right ideas, we now have the opportunity to use AI to build an amazing world. We are at a cross-roads.
It is said that history is the laboratory of philosophy. With the wrong ideas, we risk an authoritarian nightmare – Russia, China, North Korea, Islamic dictatorships — or techno-angst and stagnation — today’s Europe.
Russia has failed to learn that authoritarianism leads to stagnation. Ninety-two years ago, Germany showed us that stagnation can lead to authoritarianism.
America can avoid this fate.
The America of my youth had six key characteristics which inspired me to immigrate:
- Reason – A land of science and engineering
- Liberty – Political and economic freedom
- Individualism – Charting one’s own course
- Curiosity – A desire to learn
- Openness – Willingness to consider new ideas
- Ambition – A sincere desire to grow and build
These are values that lead to human flourishing. I felt that America was a country by and for Builders. The ideals are worth considering for organizations as well.
The emergence of AI agents should be treated as an opportunity to boldly reimagine and rebuild. When the discussion is merely about improving individual organizational functions, it misses out on the opportunity to transform an entire industry.
We will discuss how to do this at our February 26 event on Agents, Strategy, and Business Models.
